2019春季学期宏观经济研讨班安排

本学期宏观研讨班将于每个偶数周的周三或周四举行。地点均为经济学院402室。开始时间为:冬令时段7:00,夏令时段7:30。

研讨班面向所有人开放,并热烈欢迎校内外的老师、同学们来介绍自己的研究(主题不限;理论、应用皆可;微观、宏观框架皆可;统计、数理方法皆可;中文、英文皆可。) 有意者请联系我们:陈亚会 (ashley@hust.edu.cn),易鸣 (yiming@hust.edu.cn)。


06月19日 周三 7:30PM 经济学院402室


06月05日 周三 7:30PM 经济学院402室


05月22日 周三 7:30PM 经济学院402室


05月08日 周三7:30PM 经济学院402室


04月25日 周四 7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 工作论文汇报。钱铁峰(中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院 助理教授)

04月10日 周三7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 工作论文汇报。 熊然(博士研究生)。

03月27日 周三7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 文献汇报。 魏金宝(博士研究生)。
  • Title: Runs on Money Market Mutual Funds (by Lawrence Schmidt, Allan Timmermann, and Russ Wermers).
  • Abstract: We study daily money market mutual fund flows at the individual share class level during September 2008. This fine granularity of data allows new insights into investor and portfolio holding characteristics conducive to run risk in cash-like asset pools. We find that cross-sectional flow data observed during the week of the Lehman failure are consistent with key implications of a simple model of coordination with incomplete information and strategic complementarities. Similar conclusions follow from daily models fitted to capture dynamic interactions between investors with differing levels of sophistication within the same money fund, holding constant the underlying portfolio.
  • Download: Paper

03月13日 周三7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 文献汇报。宋亚军(硕士研究生)。
  • Title: Public Debt and Interest Rates (by Olivier Blanchard).
  • Abstract: The lecture focuses on the costs of public debt when safe interest rates are low. I develop four main arguments. First, I show that the current U.S. situation in which safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, is more the historical norm than the exception. If the future is like the past, this implies that debt rollovers, that is the issuance of debt without a later increase in taxes may well be feasible. Put bluntly, public debt may have no fiscal cost. Second, even in the absence of fiscal costs, public debt reduces capital accumulation, and may therefore have welfare costs. I show that welfare costs may be smaller than typically assumed. The reason is that the safe rate is the risk-adjusted rate of return on capital. If it is lower than the growth rate, it indicates that the risk-adjusted rate of return to capital is in fact low. The average risky rate however also plays a role. I show how both the average risky rate and the average safe rate determine welfare outcomes. Third, I look at the evidence on the average risky rate, i.e. the average marginal product of capital. While the measured rate of earnings has been and is still quite high, the evidence from asset markets suggests that the marginal product of capital may be lower, with the difference reflecting either mismeasurement of capital or rents. This matters for debt: The lower the marginal product, the lower the welfare cost of debt. Fourth, I discuss a number of arguments against high public debt, and in particular the existence of multiple equilibria where investors believe debt to be risky and, by requiring a risk premium, increase the fiscal burden and make debt effectively more risky, This is a very relevant argument, but it does not have straightforward implications for the appropriate level of debt. My purpose in the lecture is not to argue for more public debt, especially in the current political environment. It is to have a richer discussion of the costs of debt and of fiscal policy than is currently the case.
  • Download: Paper

02月28日 周四7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 假期见闻交流,新学期任务布置。