2017秋宏观经济研讨班安排

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本学期宏观研讨班计划于每个偶数周的星期四晚上在经济学院402会议室举行。开始时间为：夏令时段7：30，冬令时段7：00。

研讨班面向所有人开放，并热烈欢迎校内外的老师、同学们来汇报与宏观经济学或者宏观经济现象相关的工作论文（主题不限；理论、应用皆可；微观、宏观框架皆可；统计、数理方法皆可；中文、英文皆可。） 有意者请联系我们：李磊 (lilei_eco@163.com)，易鸣 (yiming@hust.edu.cn）。

2018年01月18日 7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 2017年第三季度宏观经济形势分析，刘晓翠、冯飞洋（我院硕士生）。幻灯片
  2. 文献介绍，邹建文（博士生）。
    • Title：Inferring Labor Income Risk and Partial Insurance from Economic Choices (By Guvenen and Smith, Econometrica, 2014)
    • Abstract：This paper uses the information contained in the joint dynamics of individuals’ labor earnings and consumption-choice decisions to quantify both the amount of income risk that individuals face and the extent to which they have access to informal insurance against this risk. We accomplish this task by using indirect inference to estimate a structural consumption–savings model, in which individuals both learn about the nature of their income process and partly insure shocks via informal mechanisms. In this framework, we estimate (i) the degree of partial insurance, (ii) the extent of systematic differences in income growth rates, (iii) the precision with which individuals know their own income growth rates when they begin their working lives, (iv) the persistence of typical labor income shocks, (v) the tightness of borrowing constraints, and (vi) the amount of measurement error in the data. In implementing indirect inference,we find that an auxiliary model that approximates the true structural equations of the model (which are not estimable) works very well, with negligible small sample bias. The main substantive findings are that income shocks are moderately persistent, systematic differences in income growth rates are large, individuals have substantial amounts of information about their income growth rates, and about one-half of income shocks are smoothed via partial insurance. Putting these findings together, the amount of uninsurable lifetime income risk that individuals perceive is substantially smaller than what is typically assumed in calibrated macroeconomic models with incomplete markets.
    • 评论人：胡耀文、江云
    • 下载: 幻灯片

2018年01月04日 7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 工作论文汇报，章合杰（博士生）。
    • 题目：银行竞争、资本账户开放与经济波动
    • 摘要：本文引入一个分析框架，论证了银行竞争是开放经济体经济波动的一个重要来源。模型表明：在开放经济条件下，中等水平银行竞争会导致经济波动；在封闭经济条件下，银行竞争不会造成经济波动；资本账户开放会引起银行业处于中等竞争水平的国家的经济波动。基于163个国家1996-2013年面板数据的实证研究不仅证实了理论模型的各项结论，还进一步发现：第一，只进行流入、流出任意单一方向的开放，不会导致经济波动；第二，对于直接融资市场较为发达的国家而言，资本账户开放不会引起经济波动，对于直接融资市场较不发达的国家而言，如果国内的银行业处于中等竞争水平，则资本账户开放会引起经济波动；第三，货币市场以及房地产市场这两个维度的资本账户开放，不会造成经济波动。而股权市场、债券市场、集体投资市场、衍生品和其他工具市场、商业信贷市场、金融信贷市场、直接投资市场、担保市场、个人资本交易市场这九个维度的资本账户开放，会引起银行业处于中等竞争水平的国家的经济波动。为避免经济波动，在开放资本账户之前，应先构建充分竞争的银行体系或（和）较为发达的直接融资市场。
    • 下载: 幻灯片
    • 评论人：翁丽影、陈亚会

12月21日 7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 文献介绍，翁丽影（博士生）。

    • Title：Optimal Development Policies with Financial Frictions (By Itskhoki and Moll, NBER paers)
    • Abstract：Motivated by the observation that many emerging economies pursue active development and industrial policies, we study optimal dynamic Ramsey policies in a standard growth model with financial frictions. We first study a one-sector economy, and then generalize the framework to multiple sectors in order to consider sectoral and exchange rate policies. In the one-sector economy, the optimal policy intervention initially increases labor supply and lowers wages, resulting in higher entrepreneurial profits and faster wealth accumulation. This in turn relaxes borrowing constraints in the future, leading to higher labor productivity and wages. The use of additional policy instruments, such as subsidized credit, is desirable as well. In the long run, the optimal policy reverses sign. In a multi-sector economy, optimal policy subsidizes sectors with a latent comparative advantage. Furthermore, if tradables sectors are undercapitalized relative to non-tradables, optimal policy compresses wages thereby improving competitiveness, but this does not necessarily imply a depreciated real exchange rate.
    • Download: Slides
    • 评论人：刘威、汪玉杰

  2. 高年级博士汇报自己的研究情况。

12月7日 7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 文献介绍，陈亚会（博士生）。
    • Title：Innovative Capability and Financing Constraints for Innovation:More Money, More Innovation? (By Hottenrott and Peters, published in Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012)
    • Abstract：This study presents a novel empirical approach to identify financing constraints for innovation based on the concept of an ideal test (Hall, 2008). Firms were offered a hypothetical payment and asked to choose between alternatives of use. If they selected additional innovation projects, they must have had some unexploited investment opportunities that were not profitable using more costly external finance. We attribute constraints for innovation not only to lacking financing, but also to firms' innovative capability. Econometric results show that financial constraints do not depend on the availability of internal funds per se but that they are driven by innovative capability.
    • Download: Slides
    • 评论人：刘晓翠、黄雨薇

11月23日 7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 基于经典文献介绍因子模型及其应用，魏杰（金融系老师）。
    • 题目：因子模型在项目评价中的应用
    • 摘要：横截面个体间相关性是面板数据处理中不可忽视的问题，（不可观测）因子模型在处理此类问题的优势已为学者所共识。本讲座将对因子模型做基本地介绍，而后结合文献最新进展，重点展示因子模型在项目评价中的独特价值和重要应用。
    • 下载: Slides
    • 评论人：孙华欣、江云

11月09日 7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 工作论文汇报，廖俊敏（武汉大学数理经济与金融系老师）。
    • Title: Structural Transformation and Aggregate Productivity in China
    • Abstract：We compare three prevailing theories about sectoral transformation in fitting China's data, and find that the non-homothetic constant elasticity of substitution preference (non-homothetic CES) which is easy to estimate and allows for considering the income effect and price effect in the long-run, can fit the data very well. Then we use the non-homothetic CES model to investigate the role of sectoral labor productivity in explaining the process of structural transformation and the time path of aggregate productivity across provinces in China. The implications of the sectoral productivity patterns generated by the model are broadly consistent with the cross-province data, which provide insights for China's economic transition.
    • 评论人：章合杰、邹建文
    • Download: slides

10月26日 7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 2017年第三季度宏观经济形势分析，孙华欣、李玮雪（我院硕士生）。
  2. 工作论文汇报，陈非（金融系老师）。
    • 题目: 如何利用生产法和支出法以及灯光数据改善中国GDP测量精度
    • 摘要: 中国官方GDP增长率完全依靠生产法账户得到，一直以来饱受争议。本文初步探讨了支出法GDP账户的信息含义。我们利用预测组合的方法将生产法和支出法GDP增长率结合得到精度更高的GDP增长率，最优组合系数由第三种独立的GDP增长率测度—灯光数据得到。组合后得到近年的GDP增长率高于官方数据。
    • 评论人：冯山，黄轲
    • 下载: 幻灯片

10月12日 7:00PM 经济学院402室

  1. 工作论文汇报，钱铁峰（中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院老师）。
    • Title: Identifying the Energy Saving Technical Change in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector.
    • Abstract: This paper studies energy-saving technological change in U.S. manufacturing sector, whose intensive margin and extensive margins are identified. We find that energy and capital are mostly complementary to each other, while labor is substitutive to energy-capital composite. However, a Cobb-Douglas nesting of labor is rejected. Quantitative exercise shows that in the post-crisis period, within in industry energy-saving technological change accounts for the largest proportion of the aggregate sectoral energy efficiency promotion in the long run. In contrast, in the short run, factor adjustment combined with sectoral shift accounts for the largest proportion of energy intensity reduction. We provide evidence that structural change has taken place around the oil crisis in 1970s, which is consistent with the existing literature.
    • 评论人：邹建文，李磊。
    • Download: slides
  1. 工作论文汇报，李磊（我院博士生）
    • 题目：人口流动与智能制造：基于资本——技能互补的视角
    • 内容提要：长期以来，中国依靠城乡之间、区域之间人口流动所释放的“人口红利”效应有效推动了工业化和城市化进程。本文基于2000年第五次全国人口普查分县数据和2004年中国工业企业数据考察了人口流动对工业企业智能化升级的影响，结果发现：（1）人口流动对工业企业微机应用产生了正面影响，加快了工业智能化升级的进程；（2）在区分流动人口来源后，结果显示省内县外以及省际流动人口的增加均促进了工业微机的应用，其中省际人口流动的正向效应更为稳健；（3）人口流动的影响是普遍地，对中、东、中西部地区的工业自动化水平都起到了促进作用，但影响程度和作用来源存在异质性；（4）区分企业所有制后，除集体企业外，人口流动对国有、民营以及外企的微机应用水平均有显著促进作用，其中对民营企业的影响最显著；（5）人口流动加快工业智能化进程主要是通过提高流入地人力资本水平来实现地，由此产生的资本-技能互补效应激发了企业对设备智能化升级的需求。本文所延伸的政策含义非常明显，当下中国应该加强对人力资本积累的重视，用人口质量红利代替日渐衰减的人口数量红利。
    • 评论人：刘威，胡耀文。
    • 下载: 幻灯片

9月28日

  1. 工作论文汇报，邹建文（我院博士生）。
    • Title: Introduction to Structural Estimation: A Stochastic Life Cycle Model.
    • Abstract：Structural estimation can also be defined as theory-based estimation: the objective of the exercise is to estimate an explicitly specified economic model that is broadly consistent with observed data. We will introduce a basic stochastic life cycle model and use the method of simulated moment (MSM) to estimate the model. We will use this method to research the effect of the China Public Institutions Reform, analyze its welfare effect and do counterfactual simulation.
    • 评论人：翁丽影，陈亚会
    • Download: slides.

9月14日

  1. 暑假见闻交流、新同学介绍、新学年任务布置、奖励上学期研讨班表现优秀的同学。